Today the Dallas Cowboys begin the 2011 season as an enigma to their fans. It is basically the same core of star players that were in disarray the first half of the season, starting with a 1-7 record under Head Coach Wade Phillips and Offensive Coordination Jason Garrett. It is also basically the same returning core of star players that came to life after Coach Cupcake was fired as the Cowboys finish 2010 with a strong 5-3 record during Jason Garrett's extended job interview. If not for the Roy Williams incredible fumble at the end of the New Orleans Saints game it would have been and even better 6-2 record. So, which team is this? Will the Cowboys continue the strong play under Head Coach Jason Garrett or was the second half surge an aberration that sometimes happens when a major coaching change occurs? Notice I said “star players” because there is no doubt a great deal of turnover occurred, especially on the offensive side of the ball. The one silver lining in that change is the fact offense is Garrett's expertise. As fans, you have to hope the personnel moves were more a product of the decline in player performance than a need to dump salary. The Cowboys released numerous players that contributed to the late-season winning streak that led to the removal of the “Interim” tag for Head Coach Jason Garrett. This has caused a huge void in team depth and overall game experience which makes any injury to a star player a huge obstacle to overcome.
Heading into a new season every team must stay relatively injury-free if they expect to make a major push toward a Super Bowl. With Payton Manning out two to three months, the expectations of the Indianapolis Colts playing a home game in the Super Bowl have taken a serious hit. Likewise, because of depth, or actually lack thereof on both sides of the ball for the Cowboys, their success hinges upon the veteran stars staying healthy and for the young inexperienced players to come of age quickly. This will be a common theme of this preview that will repeat time and time again.
QUARTERBACK –
Must Stay Healthy: Tony Romo, but Jon Kitna is the best backup on the team
Significant Additions: None
Obviously Tony Romo is the starting quarterback. But it was Jon Kitna who guided the offense last season during the Cowboys late-season winning streak. There is no quarterback controversy on the Cowboys and there is zero chance Kitna takes significant snaps at quarterbacks with a healthy Romo available. But Kitna’s strong play in relief last season makes the quarterback positions one of the few with an experienced backup should a starter go down. Throw in Stephen McGee and you have a depth chart that should change little unless the Cowboys absolutely stink and they somehow get involved in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.
2012 Draft Need: This will be Tony Romo's 9th season and John Kitna is entering his 15th. Stephen McGee did beat the Philadelphia Eagles but they were playing mostly backups and were playing for nothing. I don't think anybody really believes he is the quarterback of the future, so if the right opportunity would come up in the draft then quarterback is most definitely a position in need.
OFFENSIVE LINE –
Significant Departures: Marc Colombo, Dolphins - Leonard Davis, FA - Andre Gurode, Ravens – Sam Young, Bills
Significant Additions: Tyrone Smith – First-Round draft selection, David Arkin – Fourth-Round draft selection, Bill Nagy – Seventh Round draft selection
Must Stay Healthy: Doug Free, Tyrone Smith
If the Dallas offensive line plays well, Dallas has a chance to beat the Jets to open the season -- or anyone else for that matter. But, the 'Boys really have put all their eggs in one basket by rebuilding the offensive line in one big swoop. If the line struggles or has injuries, it doesn't really matter how well the other units play. Unfortunately, I happen to think they will struggle a great deal against the Jets -- and throughout the season against lesser opponents. Dallas is simply asking too much too soon for these young offensive linemen. Along the offensive line two players that absolutely must stay healthy are Doug Free and Tyrone Smith. Behind them you simply have nobody – and I mean nobody, who can play. Inside, you have Kyle Kosier and a handful of new faces with absolutely zero experience. Neither Phil Costa, Kevin Kowalski, Bill Nagy, David Arkin, or Derrick Dockery contributed during Jason Garrett extended job interview.
Granted Andre Gurode didn’t play at a Pro Bowl level last year, but he has played every game the past three seasons. If nothing else Gurode was durable and a player you could count on playing. Unfortunately, his entire situation was a fiasco from the start. Gurode couldn't report with the rest of the players and jump into practice because he had late knee surgery. With an overall team salary cap of $120 million, his $5 million salary this year and $7 million next year made him expendable. He missed a preseason game for what Jerry Jones called "business reasons". The next day he was asked to take a pay cut, he declined, and was immediately released. Like Leonard Davis and Mark Colombo before him, Gurode was released because his salary outweighed his performance on the field. That's the company line and there's a lot of truth to it. Each of those players are well past their prime – but heading into the 2011 NFL season Dallas is absolutely unprepared to cope with the loss of all three at one time. Their decline didn't occur overnight and the offensive line position, outside of failed 3rd round selection Robert Brewster in 2009, has basically been ignored in recent drafts. Only this year did the Cowboys see the writing on the wall so you have a handful of rookies that will make or break this season.
Phil Costa has started exactly one game at guard. In a short career, he has played in only four games, but amazingly, that's four games more than Kevin Kowalski, Bill Nagy, David Arkin, Jermey Parnell, and for that matter Tyron Smith combined. True, Smith looks like the real deal, but as I was putting the finishing touches on this Dallas Cowboys 2011 season preview it was reported Tyrone Smith had injured his knee and was day-to-day. I didn't believe it at first figuring that the jokesters on the CowboysGuide.com site were simply pulling my leg – can you hear me Narcissist with your bogus Tashard Choice trade declaration! :-) Unfortunately, upon further review, Smith truly is injured but fortunately he is day-to-day sort-of and it doesn't look like a season-ending injury. It really hits home, and one must recognize the incredibly obvious fact, that depth along the offense lines is razor thin, woefully inexperienced, and a position of need that must be addressed in the 2012 NFL draft. Interestingly, backup tackle Sam Young was among the final cuts for the Cowboys to get down to their 53-man roster. Claimed on waivers by the Bills, the former draft selection he did play at the end of the 2010 season but not nearly enough. Instead of getting valuable game experience with the Cowboys hopelessly out of playoff contention, Young watched the vast majority of Garrett’s extended job interview from the sideline. Perhaps the coaches saw enough of him in practice, but there is no substitution for live play when evaluating a player and Dallas should have been playing younger players late last season, including Costa, if they expected to release three starting offensive linemen. Instead Gurode and Davis started and played in all sixteen games. That's why I think the release of all the veteran offensive lineman had as much to do with salary as it did with performance. To be sure however, unless lightning strikes with the majority of the new offensive linemen fans may see a whole lot Stephen McGee out of necessity when Romo and Kitna are decapitated. As Forrest Gump would say -- "that's all I have to say about that".
2012 Draft Need: Unless Dallas hits on all these young players you can bet offensive line is going to be a huge need in the next draft. Kyle Kosier switched sides because of the need at right guard but I think by mid-season will have a pretty good picture of the needs along the offensive line.
WIDE RECEIVER –
Significant Departures: Roy Williams, Bears
Significant Additions: Zippo
Must Stay Healthy: Miles Austin, Dez Bryant
With starters Miles Austin and Dez Bryant the ‘Boys are rock solid. In fact, on paper this is a dynamic duo! Unfortunately, like offensive tackle, if a starter is injured the drop-off in talent is astronomical. The most veteran of the backups is Kevin Ogletree, but he has the least upside of all the backups as well. With 3 catches for 34 yards in 2010 and only 130 career yards, I doubt defenses will be looking at film and game planning for Ogletree. Gone is Roy Williams, another casualty of the salary cap and now a member of the Chicago Bears. I think the Cowboys are really going to miss Williams because at times he and Romo moved the chains making plays down the field. He averaged 14.3 yards a catch with five touchdowns and his departure is another case where the Cowboys were stuck between a rock and a hard place due to the salary cap. While he made some big plays, his performance didn’t justify the significant impact on the revised 2011 salary cap. The bottom line at wide receiver is a continuation of our depth theme. If either Austin or Bryant missed any significant time there is zero chance Ogletree, Dwayne Harris, Jessee Holly, Laurent Robinson, or another street free agent can pick up the slack. A significant free agent available is Randy Moss, but that’s a match a decade too late in the making but one still not too late for Jerry Jones to get right.
2012 Draft Need: Behind Austin and Bryant its razor thin. Definitely a need especially in today's NFL when teams go four and five wide receiver deep in certain sets. Do the math!
TIGHT END –
Significant Departures: none
Significant Additions: John Phillips back from injured reserve
Must Stay Healthy: Jason Witten – One Tough SOB
You had Jason Witten, Martellus Bennett, and John Phillips. This is a one position where Dallas does have depth. I guess you could call it depth, but Martellus Bennett has been an underachiever ever since he stepped foot on the field. I still can't believe the Dallas Cowboys were offered a second-round draft pick for him, and worse, they didn't accept it if the rumor of past days is true. Every time Jerry Jones mentions Bennett he is singing his praises but I sure don't see it. Nevertheless, with Bennett and Phillips I do think tight end as a position of strength but only because of John Phillips. By the end of the year you'll hear the name John Phillips more than Martellus Bennett which will make the latter expendable and/or trade bait during the off-season. Witten is a Pro Bowl player, All-Pro, superstar, and Tony Romo's security blanket extraordinaire. Enough said.
2012 Draft Need: it really depends on the development of Bennett. If he blossoms finally and meets expectations then tight end should not be a major need a draft.
FULLBACK - We will never know because Dallas simply finds them useless.
RUNNING BACKS –
Significant Departures: Marion Barber – Bears
Significant Additions: DeMarco Murray – Third-Round draft selection
Must Stay Healthy: Jones
Running back is a different story than fullback. General Manager Jerry Jones finds them extremely useful, so useful in fact the Cowboys decided to carry four running backs. There is little depth along the offensive line yet General Manager Jerry Jones decided to carry Tashard Choice in addition to three other running backs instead of trading him. Since it takes Jerry Jones a month to execute any kind of a trade (see the Carpenter for Barron drama) who knows if they'll be able to trade him before he walks next season. My money is on an outright release because Jones was critical of Choice for not playing special teams and the roster is structured with two kickers eating up valuable roster spots. Needless to say, this has got to be the last year of the David Buehler experiment. With the new NFL rule setting kickoffs at the 35-yard line, teams simply can't afford to spend a valuable roster spot on a kickoff specialist. However, I'll write more about that when I get to the kicking section. Dallas is now in the third year of the Felix Jones era and it's time for him to put up or shut up. Remember, Jones was selected is the same 2008 draft where Rashard Mendenhall (1273 yards and 13 touchdowns last year) and Chris Johnson (4598 yards and 34 touchdowns in three seasons) were taken back to back in-between the Cowboys selection of Felix Jones at #22 and Mike Jenkins at #25 in the first round. In a year where the Cowboys had a need at running back, 2008 may go down in history as the year Dallas couldn't stay out of their own way.
There is no room for excuses now that Marion Barber is with the Chicago Bears and Tashard Choice is on roster spot life support. This is the time that Felix Jones must shine or Jerry Jones must admit failure and hire a real General Manager. Waiting in the wings is DeMarco Murray. He was a third-round draft choice this year and by all accounts he looks like a good pick. On the other hand, if Mendenhall or Johnson had been selected he would have been an unnecessary selection. Just sayin.. During the preseason Murray moved the chains both with his legs and catching the ball. With the lack of depth at wide receiver you may see DeMarco Murray seeing action in the multiple receiver sets out of necessity. Jason Garrett has also brought back the screen pass. During the preseason it has looked very good! I guess when all is said and done running back is one of the strengths of the team on paper -- but unless Jones has a 1,200 yard plus season and really shines, the 2008 draft could wind up being a bigger disappointment than 2009. As an aside, Stephen McGee, Victor Butler, David Beuhler, and John Phillips are all that remain of the dozen draft selections in 2009.
2012 Draft Need: Like I said, it's put up or shut up time for Jones. If Felix Jones can just prove worthy of that first-round draft selection then Dallas can pick a position, any position, and add some depth in the upcoming draft. If not, you may see Jones trying to deal Jones and Choice with the DeMarco Murray era starting as soon as next year.
DEFENSIVE LINE –
Significant Departures: Stephen Bolan, Igor Olshansky (insignificant)
Significant Additions: Kenyon Coleman I guess.
Must Stay Healthy: Jay Ratliff
Different Positions but a familiar theme. The Cowboys are hurting with depth along the defensive line. Jay Ratliff just signed a new five-year contract but he really need some help against the run because he simply can't do it alone. Ratliff himself is more suited for getting into the backfield than holding the line. At times in the past teams just overpowered him by double teaming. Marcus Spears signed a new contract as well this year but in all true honesty he was the Dallas Cowboys second choice at defensive end. The Cowboys wanted to re-sign Stephen Bowen, but he was quickly taken off the market by the most hated Washington Redskins. After that bit of bad news the Cowboys quickly signed Spears and Kenyon Coleman who played last season for the Cleveland Browns. The Cowboys still do have Jason Hatcher but along the defensive line that just isn't much beef, or what I like to say are guys who are run stuffing monsters that won't take any crap. Even Jay Ratliff who has a motor that runs 100 miles an hour is among a group that when push comes to shove, get shoved. Failed drafts like 2009 and the Cowboys inability to draft muscle in the trenches is just baffling to me and could really haunt 'em this season. Again, as troubling as the offensive line's lack of depth is a defensive line and inside linebacker group (I will address these guys later) that is pushed around against the run. I can only hope that the coaching staff is not showing the Ryan wrinkles, but the defense looked out of position on many plays during the preseason, or worse, over-matched. Offenses ripped off three to five yards a pop at will against the Dallas defense, not to mention the pile of bodies that’s always moving toward the Cowboys' side of the field. Igor Olshansky is yet another starter from 2010 who had a salary that outweighed his play. I must say I have to agree with this call because his Conan the Barbarian poses -- even after he made a tackle 5 yards down the field, were comical. I guess the bottom line is at defensive line there are really some issues at every single position except at nose tackle. But even there as good as Jay Ratliff is he just can't do it alone.
2012 Draft Need: Dallas needs a run stuffing monster that won't take any crap. They have needed one for about ten years now and I'll just keep repeating it until they get a few.
LINEBACKERS –
Significant Departures: None
Significant Additions: Bruce Carter – Second Round draft selection
Must Stay Healthy: DeMarcus Ware, DeMarcus Ware, DeMarcus Ware
Speaking about not doing it alone I personally think DeMarcus Ware is Superman, but while Superman could do it alone I don't think Ware can. Anthony Spencer really showed a lot of promise in 2009 but last year he regressed. He'd show flashes every now and then but Ware and the Dallas Cowboys need somebody else who can just apply a tremendous amount of pressure to collapse the pocket. Spencer doesn't have to be Superman himself, and he doesn't even have to be Batman. If he could just be Robin and let Ware be Batman the Cowboys would be absolutely set at outside linebacker. That's especially true with a guy named Victor Butler who in my opinion the Cowboys should lock up to a long-term deal just like they did Orlando Scandrick. In Ryan's system he looks to have found his niche so get it done Jerry.
Inside you have Bradie James and Keith Brooking plus Sean Lee who I would've expected to push Brooking to the sideline by now. As a second round selection it is time for him to make a statement. James and Brooking are warriors but both need some support because for an entire season their bodies can't take the pounding. Again, Lee needs to step-up and it will be interesting to see if he's up to the challenge. Otherwise, it appears Jerry Jones has flushed another second round draft selection down the toilet. This year second round pick Bruce Carter is on the physically unable to perform and he's not eligible to play until the sixth game of the season. In hindsight, the Cowboys might've been better off drafting another offensive lineman instead of Carter, a player with a bum knee, especially if the coaching staff knew they were going to be cutting Gorode, Davis, and Colombo. Nevertheless what's done is done. If by chance Carter does turn into a stud then the back to back to back drafting of Tyrone Smith, Bruce Carter, and DeMarco Murray could make the 2010 draft one fans remember for a long time. Fingers crossed! Depth here, as we continue a common theme, is pretty thin if Sean Lee and Bruce Carter do not step up but it's not for lack of trying. If you look at some of the recent Cowboys drafts, especially in 2009, you will see linebackers littering the charts like the garbage on an American beach after a Fourth of July holiday weekend. It is simply amazing how many linebackers and pass rushing defensive ends that the Cowboys have dedicated draft choice to in recent history.
2012 Draft Need: The Cowboys are at a crossroads with Spencer. Much like Felix Jones is put up or shut up time. DeMarcus Ware is still the best in the business but he needs some help. Maybe Victor Butler can do that Ryan system but if neither Spencer nor Butler step up then sad to say you very well could see the Cowboys spend another draft selection on a linebacker in the upcoming NFL draft.
SECONDARY –
Significant Departures: None
Significant Additions: Abram Elam. Hey – it gets Alan Ball off the fieldit's
Must Stay Healthy: Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins
Okay, let me start the defensive back review by re-stating the incredibly obvious -- any significant injury here would just be devastating because depth is a real concern. Sound familiar? That’s the final nail in the coffin for the positional depth issue on the 2011 Dallas Cowboys. The salary purge that commenced as soon as the new collective bargaining agreement set the cap at $120 million did not hit the defensive backs. One could make an argument that it should have because Terence Newman is the poster child for an aging veteran whose performance didn't live up to his salary. This very well could be his last season because the Cowboys signed Orlando Scandrick to a new multimillion dollar contract and they didn't do that so he'd be an overpriced nickel cornerback. I don't remember any big plays or lock-down coverage out of Scandrick that led to the big contract but kudos to him and his family. If he lives up to his contract maybe the secondary won't be in as bad a shape as i expect it to be.
On the other side of the ball you have Mike Jenkins, but neither he nor Newman lived up to expectations in 2010. Jenkins drafted in 2008 immediately after Chris Johnson and Rashard Mendenhall regressed last season, had difficulty locating the ball, and had way too many episodes where he and Alan Ball were waving at each other in the end zone after a long touchdown pass. At safety Gerald Sensabaugh is solid but he too was waving at Ball last season. I don't know if it was Ball's fault all the time, but to solve an obvious problem Abram Elam was brought in as a free agent from the Cleveland Browns. He's familiar with Ryan's defensive scheme and terminology.
2012 Draft Need: The Cowboys have been searching for safety ever since they released Roy Williams. They didn't sign a bunch of guys to one-year contracts for nothing. Definite need.
SPECIAL TEAMS -
To be honest I guess I said it all in the running back section, but to repeat here we go. If David Buehler can't hit the broadside of a barn, if you can't depend on David Buehler hitting a 29, 32, 34, or 50-yard field goal – not to mention an extra point, he has got to go. Dan Bailey already looks to be more consistent on field goals than Buehler so Dallas just needs to get him on a red meat programs. I mean this is Texas! Knock off the horns, flip it twice, and put it on Dan Bailey's plate to build that leg strength up. Ferris, I mean David Buehler has got to go! Mat McBriar is solid so at least that part of the kicking game is okay.
2012 Draft Need: No! Find a reliable kicker in free agency and get rid of Buehler today.
COACHING - Jason Garrett made a huge difference last year and if that continues the Dallas Cowboys should improve. Now that the interim tag was removed from the Head Coach title he's going to be around for at least three years, so like him or not fans like me can only hope for the best. He absolutely surprised me last season so I for one am giving him the benefit of the doubt as Jason Garrett has forgot more football than we the fans have ever known. Rob Ryan takes over as defensive coordinator and one thing is for sure – the blitz packages are going to be much more exotic than when Wade Phillips was running the defense. If he can get the defense to play harder, tackle better, and just improve their overall confidence and swagger then we could see a real turnaround. Really, can it be any worse than last season? The blitz packages that Coach Cupcake had in his playbook will most definitely not be missed.
OWNERSHIP – Jerry Jones is one of the best NFL owners in my opinion, if not the best. Dallas Cowboys fans have the best stadium in the history of mankind and he's a marketing genius. Don't forget also that since Jerry Jones bought the team in 1989 the Cowboys have won three Super Bowls. How many do the Dream Team Eagles have, ever? I happen to think he might've had four Super Bowls had the personality conflict with Jimmy Johnson not occurred, but that's water under the bridge and ancient history. As owner I don't think fans can complain much about Jerry Jones at all. As General Manager, however, Jerry Jones leaves a little to be desired. I could go on for some time, and have I guess on personnel issues, the lack of results and value in the draft, inactivity in free agency, and sour trades. However, when Jones bought the team he was clear from jocks to socks he was going to be heavily involved - so fans must accept this along with the Super Bowls because it's not changing while he is in charge.
FINAL NOTES –
Overall, I haven't felt this pessimistic heading into a season and this was before Tyrone Smith's knee injury. Nevertheless, this clearly is Jason Garrett's team and he's going to be given time to build the team in his image. I think this will serve the Cowboys well in the future, but I'm under no illusion that Dallas is going to make a big run this season. I have no expectation whatsoever of even a winning season despite what I see as a fairly easy schedule with several cupcakes playing at Cowboys Stadium. Nevertheless, like the rest of the fans, I'll watch every minute of every game because since the late 1960s I've been hooked on the best franchise in the history of history.
The short off-season has hurt the Cowboys defensively because they were not able to digest Ryan's system. These are also basically the same defensive players that were taken out of their blitzing packages last season because they couldn't defend the deep pass. Abram Elam isn't an astronomical upgrade over Alan Ball, and during the preseason there was still mass confusion in the secondary. To top it off, Mike Jenkins and Terence Newman did not play a single down during the preseason. It could get ugly once again on defense if Dallas is forced out of their blitzing scheme and are passive in the secondary. My hope is Ryan brings guys from all directions instead of the 'five guys up the middle' blitzes of past years under Wade Phillips.
The Achilles' heel for Dallas in 2011 is going to be problems on the interior offensive line, defensive line, and secondary. In the NFL if you can't run the ball, if you can't pass project, if he can't stop the run, and you can't defend the deep pass – you can't win. The offensive line and defensive lines simply must be physical and active -- much more than in years past. Finally, if Dallas has a disaster against the Jets things get ugly quick. They really need to have a winning record heading into the bye week to build confidence. Also, any significant injuries will start a domino effect leading the 'Boys into Andrew Luck territory. Nevertheless, we all should have a pretty good idea early-on. Playing the Jets is like having a midterm exam the first day of class. As a fan I just want to see guys playing hard and for Garrett to get a chance to get his "program" started. Frankly, with all the issues of depth this looks more and more like a five year program that an easy fix. Nevertheless, like all fans I hope Jason Garrett brings in a little bit of the Jimmy Johnson Mojo to the organization. Fear can be a great motivator and even if it's a rocky start -- let's hope good things will happen in the future.
PS – if you see any spelling errors or mistakes let me know, but it's probably because I mumble. This preview was done 100% with Dragon NaturallySpeaking voice controlled software! Gotta love it and I'll see you on the site cheering, screaming, and throwing nachos if it really gets ugly!