Getting Smokey

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Sigmund Freud
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Getting Smokey

Post by sandyf » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:26 pm

It is getting very Smokey.

It is that time of the year where we fans will here thousands of things on who and what our chosen team is going to do in the draft and who the coaches/front office really like. For the most part it is smoke, well, not really the most part, really about 99 percent smoke.

It is the time of the year for us to cool our jets and try and put things in perspective. The 30 prospect visits start April 2nd and the team days of surrounding area prospects will happen and that will lead to more speculation. At least those visits will, as in the case with Dallas, probably results in around 3 or 4 them actually being drafted by Dallas. It could be more if the draft falls in such a way that if more are available either when Dallas picks or a slight move up with our extra picks they could be had.

This also brings out the inevitable mocks and rants about who will be there at 19 and those who declare that there is no way that this guy or that guy will fall out of the top 15 or out of the 1st round or no way this or that will be available in the 3rd or 4th round. There will even be those that believe that a guy won’t be drafted until the 6th or 7th round and yet we all know, it never happens the way we think or hope.

Smoke is the name of the game right now. No team wants to let anyone know who they are going to pick. Does it make sense? It does especially for those picking #2 and below. For Cleveland, what the heck does it matter? If they are sold on a guy be it a QB or RB or DE, just buy the guy a house close to the field and tell everyone. The scramble begins at 2. Sure some believe Cleveland could trade out of #1 and I say sure it could happen and the fans in Cleveland might also burn down the city if they do.

But let’s look at Dallas. Who does Dallas really want? What is their top need? How does their ranking go? Will Dallas trade up for a Derwin James or Termaine Edmunds or Roquan Smith? Will Dallas trade Dez Bryant to get extra picks or will they release him? If a team signs David Irving, will they match or take the 2nd round pick? There are lots of questions and no real answers unless you want to believe every media outlet, media scout and/or every blogger. Smoke and more smoke is what we are getting.

So lets just take it slow and we will look at facts and what Dallas has typically done. It might give us a small insight as to what will happen. Dallas does want to build through the draft and they do prefer younger guys coming out and they prefer those with a SPARQ score about 100 for the most part. They also now prefer guys that are team leaders or team captains, basically RKG guys.

We know they will take the BPA when they draft although it is a subjective BPA meaning usually the BPA at a position of need or depth. We know they will pick a guy that some will love, some will hate and others will just be in amazement. But we need to look at the roster and sort of figure it out first and foremost to clear some of the smoke.

Here is a partial list of guys on the 30 prospect list visits:
James Daniel OC Iowa
DeShon Elliott SS Texas
Leighton Vander Esch ILB/OLB Boise State
Daurice Fountain WR Northern Iowa
Will Hernandez OG UTEP
Darius Leonard OLB/ILB South Carolina State
Nyheim Hines RB North Carolina State
Kolton Miller OT UCLA
D.J. Moore WR Maryland
Calvin Ridley WR Alabama
Vita Vea DT(1/3 Tech) Washington
Connor Williams OT Texas
Nathan Shepherd DT Fort Hayes State
Taven Bryan DT Florida

Now what does this partial list show us in terms of need, well, more than we think I do believe. It says the offensive line is still in play as well as linebacker, wide receiver, and strong safety. It is an interesting list and sure there will be other that will follow.

Lets take it for what it is at this point to maybe clear up some of the smoke. Even after free agency, we know that we need a LG or at least someone to vie for the position. We know LB is a concern due to past injuries for both Lee and Smith and the need for depth. Defensive line is really a question mark with Irving as a RFA and no fan believing that Richard Ash, Brian Price, and Daniel Ross are the real answers at the 1tech spot. Sure Collins played there some last year but he is truly a 3tech. Of course, there is the wide receiver spot and it is thick with smoke.

Addressing these one at a time may help clear some of this although it also could be an effort in futility. So starting with the wide receiver market and going with what we do know, here is what should be seen. The Bryant situation is not settled. He may or may not be with the team by the draft or could be traded during the draft or still be on the team for another season. We know he is meeting with Jerry Jones within the next 10 plus days. Is it about a restructure of his contract or a meeting to say take a pay cut or goodbye, well none of us know. Hard to believe we cut him outright although trading him in this draft is a distinct possibility especially if you consider the wide receiver crop this year.

Whether we want to believe it or not, this wide receiver crop has a lot of good ones just as several scouts have said, none of them great at least not yet. For the vast majority, this crop is compared to the 2013 crop, some good ones, none of them worthy of a first round. In fact if you go and look up the projected yearly yard total for them over the next five years, only two of them exceed the 500 yards per season and none exceed 600 yards per season. Now we know those are subjective but it does say most believe there are a lot of wide receivers in this draft are very good #2 type but not #1 type. This very well be a draft that you find that Antonio Brown type in the 6th round. Could see Dallas taking a D.J. Moore or Ridley but only if they fell into the 2nd round.
Looking at the defensive line as a whole, most would say the weak point is the 1tech spot. Now we all know how Marinelli and his defensive scheme undervalue the 1tech spot. You cannot be just a run stuffer in his scheme. Vea may be a guy he values because it appears Vea can play either position although you could see him value a guy like Bryan much more as the draft approaches. What should surprise is the lack so far of any defensive end/edge player. We could see Dallas take a DT later in the draft for a 1tech guy and the same for a DE type but sure appears that for a 1st round guy Bryan is about the only one at this point.

And DE, well despite what Stephen Jones has said, the feeling is Randy Gregory is going to be back and counted on more than we believe. For those believing we are moving on from him, then tell us why they have not just cut him because there is no reason to hang on if he is not in the plans. Hard to believe that with Lawrence, Charlton, Tapper, Crawford, Jones and maybe Gregory that Dallas has no edge guys they are willing to look at drafting. Well at least not yet that we know anything on them.

The offensive line is a source of much heartache for fans. Do we really want to see Dallas take another OL guy in the first round? After free agency, it appears the depth has been addressed although it didn’t resolve the LG spot at least up to this point. The three best OG in the draft could be taken anywhere in the draft’s first two rounds. What, if by some miracle, Quentin Nelson fell to #19? Would we be upset if Dallas drafted him? Many love Hernandez as the LG although his pass blocking is average at best. How about Larry Allen, Jr., could he actually be a target that no one is even seeing? Something to watch in the next 3 weeks.

Then there is the linebackers and who might or might not be available. If one had to guess as the most likely pick for Dallas in the 1st round, then LB would be right up there among those that are thinking. Dallas definitely has the need. There are several there for the taking.

There is also the safety spot to consider. Many, many Derwin James fans want Dallas to trade up for him. There is also the Earl Thomas thoughts. Could he also be a trade target in the draft? A lot to consider for anyone to see and yet the smoke continues.

So then we have the Jerry Jones factor to consider. Will he make a splash? Will it be trader Jerry of the past? Could he even consider trading future picks for picks in Dallas? All questions that cannot be answered yet!

Now I cannot say I know what will happen when the smoke clears but like all of us I have an opinion and reasons why. So here goes and remember it is always subject to change.

This is Jerry’s time to shine and after all the good/bad press over Elliott and Goodell, he will want to put Dallas in the limelight, the positive limelight. He also is at a point where he wants a Super Bowl sooner more than later even if it means sacrificing a future draft pick or two. Also I see Bryant being traded not cut. Why, because his distractions have become more than Garrett wants to see and production in this scheme is not Dak friendly. The question is how much do we really see Dallas getting for him. Well, if the so called experts are correct and the WR crop is as poor as noted then getting more than expect could easily be the case. Again based on Coach Richard, I think he wants Earl Thomas and only for the right price.

I see Dallas trading a 3rd round this year and conditional 3rd next year for Thomas and signing him to a 5 year deal. He fills the FS spot and vet spot and we could see him paired up with a DeShon Elliott at SS who I think is a Dallas target in the 4th round.

I could see Dallas trading Dez Bryant and #50 to the Rams for #23. Crazy, maybe but entirely possible the way things look presently. Now what could happen in the draft will much depending on who falls to the 19th spot.

I see Dallas looking for a WR but later in the draft along with a 1 tech and a 3rd down RB. In the 1st though should be 3 tech and LB if Irving is signed by a team and we get a 2nd round pick. If Irving is still with us then the first could easily be LB and OL. As to a OG, my gut says the less I hear about Larry Allen, Jr. the more I think he is the surprise pick by Dallas with the expectation of him being the LG in 2018 and beyond.

For me, I could see it going something like this,
19. Taven Bryan DT Florida
23. Leighton Vander Esch ILB/OLB Boise State
36. Kolton Miller OT UCLA
DeShon Elliott SS Texas
Nyheim Hines RB North Carolina St
Maurice Fountain WR Northern Iowa
Oren Burks LB Vanderbilt
Among others

Just so much smoke!
Cowboys Fan for over 45 years.
\"Cherish one's friends for in the end that is all one has! Life's journey is not to arrive at the grave safely in a well preserved body, but rather to skid in sideways, totally worn out, shouting ...holy sh!t...what a ride!\"

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